TY - JOUR AU - Vögele, Stefan AU - Poganietz, Witold-Roger AU - Mayer, Philip PY - 2019/12/09 Y2 - 2024/03/29 TI - How to deal with non-linear pathways towards energy futures: Concept and application of the cross-impact balance analysis JF - TATuP - Zeitschrift für Technikfolgenabschätzung in Theorie und Praxis JA - TATuP VL - 28 IS - 3 SE - Special topic DO - 10.14512/tatup.28.3.20 UR - https://www.tatup.de/index.php/tatup/article/view/3259 SP - 20-26 AB - Energy scenarios currently in use for policy advice are based on a number of simplifying assumptions. This includes, in particular, the linear extrapolation of trends. However, this approach ignores the fact that central variables were highly dynamic in the past. For an assessment of energy futures and the specification of measures, novel approaches are necessary which can implement non-linear trends. In this paper, we show how cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis can be applied to map dynamic trends. Using a small CIB model, we highlight the need for novel approaches in the creation and evaluation of energy futures and the possible contribution of CIB analysis. ER -