Scenario Analysis Meets Agent-Based Market Simulation
Decision Support for Strategic Technology Planning
While scenario analysis allows forecasts of alternative futures, agentbased market simulation provides an insight into the complex behavior of markets. Combining these two methods bears the potential to strengthen the basis for decision making in strategic technology planning. This is achieved by simulating the impact of various technology portfolios on success in future markets, for which market characteristics are derived from the scenarios descriptions and the product attributes are determined through the technologies available in the portfolio under investigation. Moreover, it is also possible to test the effectivity of different strategies for introducing the new products into the market. This paper describes such a multi-method decision support approach for strategic technology planning and illustrates its applicability as well as its practical value with an example.
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